''Beaches in Port Phillip Bay have come and gone throughout the documentary record,'' he said. Mr Hough said this was just a continuation of a natural pattern familiar since European settlement. Once erosion starts it is hard to stop it becoming severe when you have swells,'' he said. ''It is like being ill - once you're sick you are more susceptible to other conditions. He believed the most likely explanation was natural erosion caused by the local impact of storms and seasonally high tides, exacerbated by the swell rolling in through the heads from Bass Strait. Similarly, Mr Hough said analyses of wave and current patterns soon to be released by the Port of Melbourne had found only the minor changes predicted. This has happened, but only for short periods. Modelling before the channel-deepening project suggested it would increase the range between the high and low tide mark around the bay by 20 millimetres.
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